Alternative Scenarios/Future Analysis & Delphi Technique

The way word dynamic has qualified itself, to describe flow rate affairs, implies that proximo is getting to a greater extent than uncertain at present. Radical changes in the olden occupy made present more autonomous and early more unpredictable. Need to transform and define the future have made it more demanding for the analysts to outline disparate trends curtailing to specific events, wonder what might happen next, and steel strategies to control the future. Before stepping into the world close to to come, it is important to beneathstand that future is not prediction, theres nothing rationale cognise about future, and tomorrow would not be like today.Studying future involve a systematic approach that involves identification of past trends, meditate of contemporary scenarios, and exploring possible options, given possible scenarios. Alternative Future Alternative future analysis is critic every(prenominal)(a)y an assessment approach that provides large scale ten acious term perspective of a problem that could be divided into disparate alternative, each(prenominal) curtailing to any one sub-perspective. It helps translate different visions and goals into alternatives, which could be assessed by the experts/analysts. It provides the policy makers with a vision to follow, in elusion any scenario/alternative is realized.As all these alternatives argon critically evaluated socio-economically, ecologically and rationally, chances of their sustenance is far violate than umteen other future predicting techniques. There are two briny ways the alternative future analysis process operates (Steinitz 2003 and Theobald & Hobbs 2002). Firstly, it is the organization of numerous alternative plans, assessing their consequences, and then following the approximately desirable one. It involves geometrical, pre-dominant and political interests of people. This approach is simple, but, simplicity is also a limitation (Steinitz 2003).Secondly, it is the i dentification of about important issues, pertaining to policy and decision reservation. Concluded scenario reflects the in regurgitates of different people, reflected from the choices made for it (Steinitz 2003). Scenario compendium Scenario analysis is a strategic tool, designed impeccably to design strategies, found on multiple outcomes or complex competitive situations (Sandmore, 2005). Selection of scenarios/outcomes is found upon the probabilities assigned to them, in response to values attained from different cerebrate factors. These responses help analysts develop contingency plan that covers many different possibilities.Moreover, they tidy sum separate potential threats, and can evaluate current strategy, working under the similar model. The analysis starts with the assumption that some future state has been achieved now the work starts backwards. It helps identify all those factors and their probable affect, until a base case is prepared. Now those variables are alt ered to consider the changes in the output. So it gives analysts more control over the variables, and helps decision makers identify different variables, with respect to their clash and urgency. It is important to understand that it does not predict future, it just gives a possibility.Its winner is very much dependent upon the level of details or factors voluminous are identified by the analysts, and how correctly they have related those factors to the scenario. Those factors could be political, technological, economical or social in nature. It also helps analysts understand different scenarios, and make top hat use of it by controlling near trenchant variable. Consequently, it increases the decision making time, that could result in change of some factors or scenarios over time. Moreover, external impacts could not be controlled, and their happening is not advantageously predictable.It also increases the chances of errors, and questions the dependability of analysis. Delphi T echnique Derived from a Greeks oracle, Delphi is the best known qualitative, structured and indirect future prediction method in use today (Woudenberg, 1991). It consists of a sequence of steps adopted for evoke and refining opinions of different experts (Brown, 1968). This technique was adopted by multiple disciplines and each altered it to its use hence we have three different techniques in use today. Conventional Delphi is used for forecasting and estimating unknown parameters up to a level of consensus.Policy Delphi is used to generate most opposite ideas or opinions to identify the two extremes (Bjil, 1992). Decision Delphi, on the other hand, is utilized to reach decisions amongst experts, with all contributing in the solution. While following Delphi approach, firstly, all the participants are informed, informally, about issues to be discussed. Secondly, a questionnaire regarding issue is distributed. This part includes great involvement of observe team, as this must elicit convergent and divergent points. Thirdly, more questionnaires are distributed, each with the knowledge about the previous one.This helps them refine their opinions, and could mold the respondents answers to a particular direction. It is repeated, until and unless a final consensus is achieved. Finally, the coordinating team pulls together all the responses and consensus into a final report (Masini, 1993). The most unfortunate development in the end of nineteenth century was the formation of radix that has threatened most of the developed economies, specially United States of America and United Kingdom. In 1998, Osama salt away Laden, the leader of basis, announced that his league volition be in pastime of Weapons of loudness Destruction (WMD).Since then, many American and European countries have put hands together to fight against the increasing influence of these terrorists. After the most drastic terrorist flesh out of 9/11, US forces, in support of many European forces, a ttacked Afghanistan, the biggest suspect of foundation home-base. Later, in 2003, US forces invaded Iraq. Here the perpetrator was Saddam Hussein, who was declared an agent of Al-Qaida. Since then, North Korea, Iraq, Syria and Pakistan have been the targets of US in its war against terrorism. This war, one way or the other, is weakening both Al-Qaida and US economy.In retaliation to US invasion of Afghanistan and Iraq, Al-Qaidas aftermath to get hold of WMD have intensified. What this war has in stored for our future is a big question mark for us. To understand what different experts have to say about it, a project is initiated, in which diplomats, critics, politicians, journalists and policy makers result be surveyed, using Delphi technique. First of all, through emails, letters and visitors, all these participants allow for be selected, found upon their availability, level of involvement in current affairs, especially war against terrorism, critical insight and reputation amon gst the colleagues.Once their participation will be confirmed, all of them will be officially communicated about the issue to be discussed, which is the sensitivity of WMD, and possible targets of Al-Qaida attacks in US. Major research will carry around the importance of WMD whether or not Al-Qaida has one of it possible target of Al-Qaidas attacks in US security levels in US and response of US nation towards US policy of war against terrorism. Major assumptions will be taken based on the trend analysis, by monitoring team.Major targets will be put up based upon following factors Location (geographically and strategically) Importance (economic and defense) Security (national and nominal) Population (distribution and class) seismic disturbance (economically and socially) and Urgency. These factors will further be classified based upon the response from the experts. only the participants will be allowed to make any assumptions, which should be communicated before the submission of questionnaire. Major questions for the first round will be 1. Is Al-Qaida a threat to US, or a ticket to failing states?2. Are Weapons of press Destruction in safe hands? 3. Does Al-Qaida have Weapons of set Destruction? 4. Are Al-Qaida attacks consequences of US policies? 5. What could be the purpose of Al-Qaidas attack in US? 6. Can US brook Al-Qaidas attacks? 7. What could be the possible target of Al-Qaida? 8. Is US national strong enough to stop Al-Qaidas attack? 9. How concern is US nation about terrorism? 10. Is Al-Qaida making its roots in Americans? References Bjil R (1992). Delphi in a future scenario study on mental health and mental health care in Futures Vol 24, No 3, pp 232-250Brown B (1968). Delphi Process A Methodology Used for the inductive reasoning of Opinions of Experts Santa Monica The RAND Corporation Foreign Policy (2010, January 25th). Al-Qaidas pursuit of Weapons of Mass Destruction. August 9, 2010, from http//www. foreignpolicy. com/articles/2010/01/25 /al_qaedas_pursuit_of_weapons_of_mass_destruction Masini, E (1993). Why Futures Studies? London Grey postage Steinitz, Carl (2003) Alternative futures for changing landscapes. USA Island Press Woudenberg F (1991). An Evaluation of Delphi in Technological Forecasting and Social Change Vol 40, pp 131-150